Hypothetical emergence of poliovirus in 2020: part 1. Consequences of policy decisions to respond using nonpharmaceutical interventions.

OBJECTIVES: As efforts to control COVID-19 continue, we simulate hypothetical emergence of wild poliovirus assuming an immunologically naïve population. This differs from the current global experience with polio and serves as a model for responding to future pandemics. METHODS: Applying an established global model, we assume a fully susceptible global population to polioviruses, independently introduce a virus with properties of each of the three stable wild poliovirus serotypes, and explore the impact of strategies that range from doing nothing to seeking global containment and eradication. RESULTS: We show the dynamics of paralytic cases as the virus spreads globally. We demonstrate the difficulty of eradication unless aggressive efforts begin soon after initial disease detection. Different poliovirus serotypes lead to different trajectories and burdens of disease. In the absence of aggressive measures, the virus would become globally endemic in 2-10 years, and cumulative paralytic cases would exceed 4-40 million depending on serotype, with the burden of disease shifting to younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: The opportunity to eradicate emerging infections represents an important public policy choice. If the world first observed the emergence of wild poliovirus in 2020, adopting aggressive control strategies would have been required to prevent a devastating global pandemic.

Polio in Afghanistan: The Current Situation amid COVID-19.

Polio is a deadly viral disease that has been paralyzing many children in Afghanistan. Despite fundamental efforts, primarily vaccination, to reduce the number of cases in Afghanistan, there are still many children who are deprived of the vaccine every year. Afghanistan is one of the two remaining countries endemic for polio, and the country has undergone various challenges that have hampered the eradication of this disease. The underlying challenges include inaccessibility of unsecured areas, illiteracy, refusal, and, most recently, COVID-19. The country is in the midst of a battle against COVID-19, and polio has almost entirely been neglected. Sadly, polio cases are increasing in the country, particularly in polio-free provinces. After an initial lockdown, many businesses have been allowed to resume, but the mass polio vaccination campaign has not restarted. New cases of polio will surge if endemic regions remain unvaccinated or inaccessible. To curb the further spread of polio, Afghanistan needs to resume nationwide house-to-house vaccination as restrictions due to COVID-19 are loosened.